January 2019
Updated with the last 2 years figures in this table . 2 significant points to note which I will add at the end of the thread which will be easier if others also wish to comment.
March 2017
I've updated this first post with figures up to 2016. From 2015 they include Northern Ireland hence the increase.
I'm pleased to see 4 years ago my crystal ball was working when at the end of this post I predicted prices would increase from 2015 and doubly pleased I took my own advice and bought one in 2014 as the decline in numbers continues (sort of)
2013
So duncan ddouble was wondering how many have been exported in the last few years which made me have a look at the howmanyleft.co.uk which uses the DVLA data supposedly. Although it's not 100% accurate as we know because it splits the data into licensed and SORN, off the road cars and there is a bit of crossover from each quarter so the total numbers vary a little, what is interesting is if you just look at say the total figures for each year and the decline in the total numbers due to write offs and exports.
Since 2007 when they started recording Sorn cars, Phase 1 230 numbers have dropped from 206 to 163 last year and Ph2 255 have dropped from 293 to 254. If this carries on then by the end of the decade Ph1 cars could be down to 100 and ph2 to 200. That is becoming seriously rare for a car that was still in production as recently as 2005 where none are being written off through rust, old age etc as can happen with older cars. To put that into perspective there are still over 100 Mercedes 230 SL from the 1960's licensed let alone the 250 and 280 model that followed in the late '60s. for a modern car comparison there are still about 300 quarter of a million pound Ferrari 599 Fiorano F1. But then we know all Ferraris , Astons and Bentleys are more common these days.
here are the V6 total figures by year. Q3/Q4 seem to be the highest when combining SORN and taxed. no idea why.
Year ph1 ph2
2007 206 293
2008 205 292
2009 197 281
2010 188 278
2011 170 267
2012 163 254
2013 157 246
2014 143 235
2015 150 245 - now includes N Ireland
2016 157 247
2017 159 245
2018 157 253
I suppose only when prices start seriously going up will the numbers stop dropping and people take better care of them and it would appear we are not there yet from what i've seen and it could take another 5 years plus...... according to accepted classic car indicators it is around the 20 to 25 years mark that a lowish volume car starts going up in value and it's generally true. I watch Mercedes SL values ( been there and hope to go back to one day too!) and its only in the last 3 years that late '80s "Bobby Ewing" SL's have consistently gone up from a base of £10k to now £15k for a very good condition 100,000 mile car. The '90s SL has nearly reached rock bottom now and good ones are holding steady. I think the Clio V6 will buck this trend because of the lower numbers on the road so rock bottom might be reached in only 15 years from new. ie in a couple of years time if the numbers keep going down like this. And as we have seen if it's a minority i.d. colour then maybe we are at the bottom now.
Updated with the last 2 years figures in this table . 2 significant points to note which I will add at the end of the thread which will be easier if others also wish to comment.
March 2017
I've updated this first post with figures up to 2016. From 2015 they include Northern Ireland hence the increase.
I'm pleased to see 4 years ago my crystal ball was working when at the end of this post I predicted prices would increase from 2015 and doubly pleased I took my own advice and bought one in 2014 as the decline in numbers continues (sort of)
2013
So duncan ddouble was wondering how many have been exported in the last few years which made me have a look at the howmanyleft.co.uk which uses the DVLA data supposedly. Although it's not 100% accurate as we know because it splits the data into licensed and SORN, off the road cars and there is a bit of crossover from each quarter so the total numbers vary a little, what is interesting is if you just look at say the total figures for each year and the decline in the total numbers due to write offs and exports.
Since 2007 when they started recording Sorn cars, Phase 1 230 numbers have dropped from 206 to 163 last year and Ph2 255 have dropped from 293 to 254. If this carries on then by the end of the decade Ph1 cars could be down to 100 and ph2 to 200. That is becoming seriously rare for a car that was still in production as recently as 2005 where none are being written off through rust, old age etc as can happen with older cars. To put that into perspective there are still over 100 Mercedes 230 SL from the 1960's licensed let alone the 250 and 280 model that followed in the late '60s. for a modern car comparison there are still about 300 quarter of a million pound Ferrari 599 Fiorano F1. But then we know all Ferraris , Astons and Bentleys are more common these days.
here are the V6 total figures by year. Q3/Q4 seem to be the highest when combining SORN and taxed. no idea why.
Year ph1 ph2
2007 206 293
2008 205 292
2009 197 281
2010 188 278
2011 170 267
2012 163 254
2013 157 246
2014 143 235
2015 150 245 - now includes N Ireland
2016 157 247
2017 159 245
2018 157 253
I suppose only when prices start seriously going up will the numbers stop dropping and people take better care of them and it would appear we are not there yet from what i've seen and it could take another 5 years plus...... according to accepted classic car indicators it is around the 20 to 25 years mark that a lowish volume car starts going up in value and it's generally true. I watch Mercedes SL values ( been there and hope to go back to one day too!) and its only in the last 3 years that late '80s "Bobby Ewing" SL's have consistently gone up from a base of £10k to now £15k for a very good condition 100,000 mile car. The '90s SL has nearly reached rock bottom now and good ones are holding steady. I think the Clio V6 will buck this trend because of the lower numbers on the road so rock bottom might be reached in only 15 years from new. ie in a couple of years time if the numbers keep going down like this. And as we have seen if it's a minority i.d. colour then maybe we are at the bottom now.
